汇率预测:一个新的非参数支持向量回归方法

本文利用一个新的非参数支持向量回归(SVR)方法来预测基于非线性ARI模型的汇率时序变量,并且与最大似然法(MLE)和人工神经网络(ANN)的预测结果进行比较。从理论上讲,MLE和ANN方法仅侧重于样本内拟合,而SVR方法则同时考虑了拟合和预测,因此,其预测能力在现有方法中是最强大的。本文选择中国、韩国、印度和瑞士四种货币的日汇率来进行预测检验,实证结果支持SVR方法具有最强的预测能力。     

基于即期日度数据的外汇市场有效性协整检验

文章采用了2000年1月-2006年12月的日元/美元、欧元/美元、英镑/美元以及人民币/美元的每日即期汇率数据,运用协整方法对外汇市场的有效性进行了检验。研究结果显示,日元与英镑,日元与欧元,以及人民币与日元、与英镑、与欧元的汇率市场是有效的,分析认为与实际情况比较相符,采用协整方法对外汇市场的长期数据进行检验来验证市场有效性是可行的,采用该种方法进行实际判断以及未来预测,为监管当局的决策提供建议,都具有重要作用。     

估算汇率弹性的模型和对人民币汇率的实证分析

人民币汇率制度改革的主要内容之一是为人民币汇率估算一个适度的弹性范围。本文在F-M模型的基础上构建了一个能够较好地拟合我国实际情况的汇率弹性估算模型，并利用这个模型对人民币汇率的弹性进行了实证分析。该模型没有将汇率制度进行机械的分类，而是将不同汇率制度下汇率的弹性看作是从0～1的连续分布。实证分析的结果是人民币汇率的弹性范围应该限定在围绕均衡汇率上下浮动12％以内。     

基于总出行时间最少的城市轨道交通站问距探讨

车站站间距规划和设计是城市轨道交通规划与设计的重要内容。从社会扩大再生产的角度分析了把总出行时间最少作为目标函数的必要性,得出了基于总出行时间最少的最优站间距的计算方法,研究了各个因素变化对站间距的影响,得出的结论为实际工作中站间距的合理确定提供了理论支持。     

Cyclical equilibria in multi-sector productive economies: The role of substitution and factor intensity

The paper examines the existence of cyclical perfect foresight equilibria in a two-sector overlapping generations economy with production in which both goods enter consumption. Conditions for the existence of two types of cyclical equilibra are obtained in terms of elasticities of substitution in production and consumption, factor shares in production, and expenditure shares in consumption. The role of substitution possibilities and factor intensities is highlighted. It is shown that factor intensity assumptions are not enough to rule out cyclical equilibria and that limit cycles may exist for substantial amounts of substitution possibilities in production; what matters is the relative sizes of the consumption and production elasticities. The results are illustrated using CES functions. A dynamical simulation of an economy which exhibits a Hopf cycle is presented.     

Vested interests, population ageing and technology adoption

Technologies that are used differ vastly across and within countries. It is commonly observed that technologies that would improve productivity are not adopted. This paper explains the failure to adopt new technologies through costs of adoption for people of different age. We set out an overlapping generations model with majority voting that predicts a relationship between the age composition of an economy and economic growth. We also consider the effects of more intense competition on technology adoption.     

《雷雨》初版与通行版之差异及其对主题的影响

《雷雨》的通行版删去了初版中的《序幕》和《尾声》,而《序幕》和《尾声》却创造了诗般纯美的悲剧氛围,起到了强化悲剧色彩的作用,并且通过把剧情推向“辽远”,从而造成一种欣赏的距离,并不象某些评论家所言它体现了宿命论思想;通行版还删改了初版中的某些细节,虽强调了周家与鲁家的阶级对立,增强了作品的斗争性,却减弱了人物形象的丰富性、复杂性、真实性。     

我国外汇市场供给的集中与分散

我国外汇市场的基础外汇供给经历了高度集中、适度分散和垄断集中的三个阶段，每个阶段具有各自的特点．对于这种供给的集中与分散，论文从产权经济学的角度给出了解释，并分析了它们在一定发展时期的合理性。当然，我国外汇市场外汇供给的过快集中也带来了相应的成本。     

扩大中等收入者比重的原因及方法

近年来,随着居民收入的普遍提高,贫富差距也越拉越大,已成为困扰我国改革的难题,而要解决收入差距悬殊所导致的一系列严重的社会及经济问题,就必须从我过实际出发,提高中等收入者比重,努力构建和谐社会。     

Technological Innovations and the Interest Rate

We build a dynamic general equilibrium model that adds a banking sector to the standard RBC model. We look at the response of the real interest rate to innovations in the banks' technology and in the nonbank firms' technology. While technological innovations in the nonbanking sector put upward pressure on the interest rate, technological innovations in banks exert downward pressure on the interest rate. This implies that, if the technological innovations in banks are strong enough, stochastic simulation experiments generate negative correlations between the real interest rate and current and future values of real output. This is especially significant because negative correlations between the interest rate and output are a key post-war U.S. business cycle fact difficult to replicate in benchmark dynamic models.